Why Ireland's win shouldn't surprise us ..
Ireland expected to compete, England were off in all facets, T20 as a format levels the playing field
Ireland 157; England 5-105; Ireland win by five runs (DLS)
Why should Ireland’s win over England surprise us? Albeit via Duckworth-Lewis-Stern’s (DLS) secretive mathematical formula.
No doubt, fast-forward ten years, and the win might be attributed to the ‘luck of the Irish’, with the inclement Melbourne weather lauded as Ireland’s ally. Fancy that, an Ireland and weather association. Anyway, this assumption would be grossly unjust.
So why shouldn’t we be surprised — Ireland drove the game from the start-stop-start. The two powerplays — the first six overs, where the fielding team is restricted to a maximum of two fielders outside the 30 metre circle — are games within the game.Ireland dominated both — finishing at one for 59 with the bat, and their bowlers reduced England to three for 37. A telling differential in the T20 format.
How did this happen? Well, this leads us to the crux of the argument.
If we isolate the debate to the powerplays only, then the data-set is just 36 balls, or 72 in total. Therefore, the impact of a team’s higher-performing players is restricted, their influence is diluted.
It’s like racing Usain Bolt over 20 metres. You might fluke a start, he might miss it and stumble, and you cross the line first. Over 100 metres you have no chance; his superior skill-set is allowed to flourish and assert itself.
On the bowling side of the coin it’s rare that a bowler will bowl more than two overs in a T20I powerplay — 12 balls. Whereas, in Test cricket, a conventional fast-bowling spell can stretch to seven, maybe eight overs — 48 balls. As a result, the Test bowler has a wider opportunity to create chances and to utilise his skills.
Picking a case example from this game: In England’s batting powerplay, Fionn Hand bowled the sixth over — he was the fourth bowler used by Ireland. His first ball was a wide, leg side wide to Ben Stokes. An unsure start.
Next ball (ball 33 in England’s innings) Stokes was bowled with an in-swinging bail-trimmer. The ball wasn’t unplayable, but it’s relation to the previous ball was similar to a distant cousin second removed. The dismissal highlighted the narrow impact windows that T20 cricket presents. Hand didn’t come close to repeating this dose. His match figures were (one for 17) from two overs. Yet, that one ball, I will argue, changed the course of the game.
T20 cricket is a natural leveller, and it’s a diabolically difficult game to predict. Such is it’s attraction to the, dare I say, non-purist. And, arguably, the birthplace of the ubiquitous cricket analyst.
Adding more fuel to the fire. Zimbabwe defeated Pakistan last night in Perth. This after Pakistan added a fourth quick to their already pace-heavy attack. Zimbabwe played with poise against the new ball, forcing Pakistan to play catch up later in the innings, and held their nerve, closing out for a one-run win.
Who would be a T20 coach? Don’t ask Phil Simmons!
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England undoubtedly contributed to the perceived upset. Previous form had them riding a wave of irresistible momentum; both sides of their game were clicking. English pundits praised their well-balanced team. Sadly though, for England, this was washed away (as is much of Victoria) by an industrious Ireland, and an ill-timed downpour.
The Irish are persistent; watching the game, I couldn’t help but think of a friend back in Ireland. This is a gentlemen who baked bread on Ireland’s west coast, and sold it to a supermarket in Australia, that is named after another friend's son. Unbelievable? Ciaran Lally did exactly this. His gluten-free, pre-baked, vacuum-packed bread traveled half-way around the world onto the breakfast plates of ordinary Australians for years. Ingenious. And, of course he let me know about the bloody cricket!
Andrew Balbirnie, Ireland’s captain said — “I’ve seen a lot of rain in my time playing cricket and I’ve never been happier to see that rain come down,”
Earlier, Balbirnie had led from the front with the bat. His powerplay contribution was critical in seizing the initiative from England’s inconsistent bowling. Balbirnie lasted through to the 16th over before being dismissed by Liam Livingstone in the outfield — his 62 from 47 deliveries, provided Ireland the base to push toward a defendable total.
The other notable contribution came from Lorcan Tucker, who looked mightily impressive batting at three. Clean ball-striking, clever innovation, and a calm head all shone amidst a gloomy MCG. Absolutely one to watch through the rest of the tournament.
As mentioned, England had slipped to three for 37 by the end of their powerplay, and looked a long way off challenging Ireland’s 157.
With Jos Buttler, Alex Hales and, Stokes all checking the weather radar, it was left to Dawid Malan and Harry Brook to get the innings back on course. Neither found any rhythm, and surprisingly, no consistency in their ball-striking. Confusion was evident, which game do we try and win; the 20 over game, or will it be the DLS version. Hindsight says they picked incorrectly. Hardly legitimate blame to level though.
Moeen Ali looked dangerous, and given more time, it seemed likely he would lift England ahead of the DLS score. He was denied, as were England, and Ireland justifiably prevailed by a margin of five runs.
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Today, Friday, England find themselves playing a virtual eliminator with host country Australia. Similar, or worse, weather is forecast; with neither team able to absorb another defeat. If the cliche is correct, “you’re only as good as your last game,” then England have a job on their hands.
Selection will be critical with Chris Woakes under the most pressure. Chris Jordan is a like-for-like who might add another layer of defence, which given Australia’s last game, will be needed. Personally, I would table David Willey to bowl in with the new-ball, giving variation with his left-hand bias, and potentially a strong match-up for Aaron Finch. Keep in mind the rule of taking out the captain first.
Adam Zampa is likely to return from illness for Australia, and those calling for Aaron Finch to be replaced should re-boot their memory banks.
Everybody, including me, is hoping this bloody weather will bugger off somewhere else — preferably Bass Straight.
As always, thank you for being here.
