Super 12s .. current state of play ..
Group 2
No doubt, the biggest potential casualty so far has to be Pakistan. Can they find a way through qualifying to the final four? I fear NOT.
South Africa now holds pole position after a thrilling win over India, with David Miller calmly guiding them home after a profitable partnership with Aiden Markram — their 76 run collaboration (10 overs) was easily the game high, and the difference between the two teams.
For India, both Ravichandran Ashwin ( 1-43 from four overs) and Virat Kohli will be re-visiting their evenings. Ashwin not able to counter the Protea’s aggression toward him, and Kohli wishing for a replay of his missed chance in the outfield, from Ashwin’s bowling. Markram being the beneficiary.
South Africa’s net run rate (NRR) of +2.772, created in the main by the powerful 104-run win over Bangladesh, means they are now clear favourites to top Group 2.
India plays Bangladesh Wednesday, and this shapes as a pivotal game. An NRR of +0.844 gives India the edge. Although, I’m sure they are wanting Rohit Sharma and KL Rahul to find some form at the top of the order. Deepak Hooda will likely make way for Axar Patel. India finishes the group stage against Zimbabwe.
Pakistan needs two wins (v SA and Ban) and will have to hope for other results to fall their way. The qualification predictor has them a 14% chance to make it through — and, the question is, how will they get past South Africa on November 3 on current form?
South Africa play four left-handers in their top seven — both Mohammad Nawaz and Shadab Khan will be turning back into their hitting zones. As a team, South Africa play left-arm spin very well, striking at 8.43 runs an over; this increases to 8.73 in the middle overs (5-16) at an average of 44. Nawaz looks likely to be replaced if they follow the numbers — Iftikhar Ahmed’s off spin looks a viable option.
Therefore, an Indian win against Bangladesh Wednesday night will basically close the door on the group. I believe, this will be the case.
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Group 1
New Zealand, one of only two teams to remain unbeaten, look to have Group 1 under control. Their qualification probability sits at a believable 84%. And their nett run rate (NRR) is far superior at +3.850
Australia and England will most likely fight out the other spot. England look to have the more difficult draw (v NZ and SL), while Australia play Ireland tonight, and finish with Afghanistan, Friday.
Australia will be looking to post two big wins; both collecting points, and boosting their NRR which sits at -1.555. Ireland and Afghanistan are the lowest ranked teams in Group 1 and you would expect no mistakes from the hosts. Starting with a win tonight, on the back of some reasonable momentum from their last game, against Sri Lanka.
If I were on staff, I would be suggesting a floating role for Matthew Wade. Three reasons: firstly, break up some of the right-hand dominance from (3-6) - the Gabba dimensions are unusual. Second, get the enigmatic Wade into the tournament, and lastly, use him to delay some of the batting entry points where needed. Namely, Glenn Maxwell and Tim David.
England has to get past New Zealand. How do they do this?
Firstly, get through the batting powerplay with minimal wicket damage, which flies in the face of their modus operandi.
It’s likely both Mitchell Santner and Ish Sodhi will play Wednesday — England have left-handers at (3, 4, and 7) - Sodhi’s economy rate (ER) is high against lefties (9.02) compared to 8.17 against right-handers. If they can get to Sodhi, and to a lesser extent Santner, then, Jimmy Neesham will have to bowl overs. His most recent ER is close to 11.0.
Wednesday night shapes as a cracking game — I’m sure the Kiwi’s will have a recent 50 over World Cup final on their minds!
I’m divided here! If England can beat New Zealand Wednesday, I think they will go through, and might just go all the way. Australia will win tonight and Friday. The last mention is England playing the last game of the group, which might give them an advantage if there are further upsets to the form lines.
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So, an interesting week ahead. As always, thank you for being here.
