Scott's Cats relentlessly ticking boxes ...

The Cats keep ticking boxes; a "go forward" pivot hatched from an unlikely source and implemented by Chris Scott - what can go wrong?

Chris Scott and his Geelong Cats have been ticking boxes, an exercise actioned with relentless precision and authority.

To me, they look perfectly positioned to win a premiership, and the burning question is, what can go wrong?

I would say, not too much. A simple mindset pivot has allowed the Cats to "go forward" and go quicker. The previous iteration of safety-first football was failing, specifically in the suffocating cauldron of finals football. This season Geelong ranks fourth in the “kicking in a forward direction” — as opposed to 18th in 2021.

You have to love a metric like that — “kicking in a forward direction” — present that stat to Carji Greeves and you might find yourself on the seat of your pants!

Regardless, Geelong’s senior players have embraced the freedom created by the "go forward" shift. Also, Chris Scott has referred to the pivot as “an optimistic” look at “what is possible in 2022.” Often the reason for change can be too obvious and too clear-cut to see.

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Geelong’s top six players are in reliable form, and the burgeoning support cast — Tom Atkins, Brad Close, Zach Guthrie, and Max Holmes — to name a few, are settled and not missing a line. The dependable backs are as miserly as ever, and most importantly, the coach appears to be enjoying great clarity in his thinking.

The Cats on the move - forward. Credit: AFL

My world despises task managers, those with the annoying square boxes to the left of your to-do scribble. Perching there patiently waiting to be ticked, just lifeless boxes demanding entitled attention. I loathe them with a passion.

I wonder if Chris Scott subscribes to them? I think he might — I feel like I am in the minority on this. Further research showed these dreaded beings go as far back as Benjamin Franklin — the founding father of the United States — also the founding father of “to-do” lists. Imagine that!

So, it’s a divide and conquer mechanism. Separate your list into smaller achievable tasks, tick those damn boxes, and when completed, you have it all — a premiership. Simplicity, or not?

Scott’s might read something like this — in the linear form:

Last three rounds no mistakes; secure minor premiership; manage injuries and playing time loads; win qualifying final, break the preliminary final hoodoo; hoist the premiership with a record-equalling 16-game winning streak; and tell the doubters to go bloody jump

For the record, that would be: tick, tick, tick, tick, TBC, not confident, resounding tick.

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With that said — have you ever wondered what might happen if you only aggregate tasks and not tick them, afford them no attention, shun their flirtatious advances? You could argue the pressure will build to a breaking point, and "God forbid!" They fold.

“Fold.” — there is an unsettling word. Surely the foundations built at Geelong this season will alleviate any downward pressure. As Chris Scott says, “Pressure is a privilege.” This is the question: can they resist my anti-establishment tendencies and play by the rules? If they do — there are only two “to-do'“ boxes to tick.

But, before you merrily tick away, is the most provocative '“to-do” missing from Scott’s list?

That’s the “don't stuff this up” task, a line that will keep coaches awake at night.

It is hard to ignore for any coach. Coaches might tell you they prefer being chased and not the chaser, but it remains a lingering thought of doubt. A behind-the-hands look at win-loss probability is a sobering reality. Sixteen wins without a loss takes some doing.

Also, for the record, an alarming stat says of the 10 preliminary finals in the pre-finals bye era (2016-20), qualifying finals winners to have a 4-6 record (40%). Before that, 17 of the 18 preliminary finals (94%) were won by qualifying final winners. (Note: there was no pre-finals bye in 2021)

You can make stats work for you in any way you want.

So, roll probability into chance, or vice-versa, and you have a variable that may or may not play a part in Geelong finishing off a stellar turn-around season. Fascinating viewing awaits.

Chris Scott and Steve Hocking looking forward.

The preliminary final weekend is often labeled the year's best football weekend. And, it is upon us — Geelong is a great place to be — apart from the weather!

The Cats faithful have much to deliberate over: will Joel Selwood and Patrick Dangerfield start on the bench? Can Rhys Stanley have the game his coaches believe he has in him? Will Gary Rowan be able to play his role again, allowing Jeremy Cameron room to move? The Guthrie brothers are both rippers, and in career-best form, how will they go? Big Tommy Hawkins — what can you say?

And then, on the other side: how will they negate Lachie Neale’s influence? Will Hugh McCluggage have another big night (25 touches) against the Demons despite being tagged? Can the Cats suppress Brisbane’s newfound belief and strength at the contest? What will Joe Daniher and Oscar McInerney bring to the table?

The two teams met only once this season in round four, with the Cats prevailing by 10 points. Tom Hawkins kicked five goals for the Cats, while Joe Daniher and Daniel McStay each had three for the Lions.

How ironic will it be if a rule change initiated by one of Geelong’s own will be the catalyst for their 10th premiership? The new “stand” rule has opened up new opportunities; new avenues to goal. Steve Hocking was single-handedly tasked with opening up the game as AFL football operations boss.

Now, as the Cat’s chief executive, Hocking brings all the ammunition Geelong needs to pivot to a place where they can finally tick all those damn boxes.

As always, thank you for being here.