BBL12: Race for finals heats up as season finally nears the pointy end...
As the BBL12 season stretches on, it becomes increasingly apparent that the tournament bears a resemblance to a war crimes trial—when will it ever end?
Admittedly, not quite the fatal end that Slobodan Milošević experienced in 2006—yes, it’s best we leave those details alone and get back to the cricket.
It’s also evident that it’s longevity is a legitimate point of contention among fans, players, and commentators alike.
Most of the grounds have been sparsely populated, players come and go like British prime ministers, and the majority of the commentators end up talking about themselves—which they do very well—fancy that!
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With that being said, we are finally at the pointy end of BBL12 and it’s time to wrestle the remote back and switch the action back on.
To be exact—as you should be in a courtroom—the competition as it stands takes a mere 56 games before three teams are actually sent to the gallows, or back to their whiteboards.
Yes, only three teams will be eliminated, or put out of their misery, leaving five weary contenders to compete in an elaborate finals series (which I will try to explain later)—this will all be decided by Wednesday evening.
The Melbourne Stars already know their fate, leaving four other teams to figure out who packs their bags, or, how you should look at it, which two teams join The Perth Scorchers, Sydney Sixers, and Brisbane Heat in the final five.
Two spots remain available for four teams.: The Melbourne Renegades, Sydney Thunder, Adelaide Strikers, and Hobart Hurricanes. Here’s how I think it might play out (gamble responsibly, or better still, not at all):
Tonight: Renegades vs. Strikers at Marvel Stadium…
The Renegades should leave nothing to chance by beating the Strikers on their home deck. Riding growing momentum on the back of their in-form bowling unit, and The Strikers are literally stumbling home. Changes have to be made; I’m not sure there’s a need for two keepers! There is a need for Matt Short to turn his form back on, though. Renegades in a squeaky finish.
Tomorrow: Hurricanes v Heat at UTAS, this is an afternoon game, followed by Stars v Thunder at MCG, 7.15pm AEDT.
The Heat will look to finish as high as possible—third—and appear to be on a mini-heater, pardon the pun. They look too good for the Hurricanes in what might still be a tight finish. Look out for Hurricanes skipper Matty Wade to play a pivotal role.
And, tomorrow night, who would argue against David Warner not guiding his Sydney Thunder into the BBL12 finals? The MCG is a favoured hunting ground for Warner, although he will be looking to improve on his current BBL12 stats, which read: 61 runs from four hits, with a low-balling strike rate (SR) of 89.71.
Just offering a teasing comparison here: Steve Smith (Sydney Sixers) has already hit 24 sixes in his four games in BBL12, six more than anyone else in the competition. In fact, Matt Short comes closest with 18 sixes in 13 games. And, believe it or not, David Warner, just has the solitary maximum in BBL12.
I would say that’s extraordinary (I can still hear Jonathan Agnew saying the same after Steve Waugh completed his back-from-the-dead hundred in Sydney, all those years ago)—leave a comment if you can remember the bowler?
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So, how will it wash out?
The Thunder will leap-frog into fourth spot on the back of a resounding nett run rate (NRR) win over The Stars. The Heat will hold onto third spot, an excellent return from where they were three weeks ago. And, The Renegades will fill the last finals berth with a squeaky win over The Strikers.
The final five: Scorchers, Sixers, Heat, Thunder, Renegades.
Consider that the first BBL iteration had only 28 home and away matches.
What were the gatekeepers thinking back then? Clearly they thought more about the cricket and less about revenue.
Fear not, fanaticism now reigns. Both in the living room and in the the boardroom.
The Australian cricket-watching public appears to be obsessed with their nightly fix of T20 action. Obligingly coercing themselves into a state of irrational verve and commitment. Unable to put the remote down, they gleefully consume this marathon-like event with the vim and vigour normally reserved for a Seinfeld series. Or, wait for it, do they?
Yes, there is a sarcastic bent to my commentary.
Personally, I love watching the strategy and intricacies that this format offers. The overall playing standards have been excellent. The better teams look to be getting stronger, while the middle tier is consolidating and moving forward, with the cellar-dwellers playing a familiar tune and hoping for something different next year.
What they are likely to get is fewer games. A new broadcast deal with Foxtel and Seven, which is a year away, will see the schedule cut from 61 games to 43. which will see BBL13 finish late in January.
Existing commercial deals between BBL clubs and their respective corporate partners could still prove challenging if and when a shorter season is tabled. The maximum number of home games in a shorter season is likely to be five, as opposed to seven now.
In any case, I believe there is a compelling argument on many fronts to maintain the competition's interest levels from start to finish by reducing the number of games and keeping players, supporters, and commentators as fresh as the proverbial daisy.
Let me get back to you on the Finals series formula?
As always, I appreciate you being here.
